• Weekly Market Report 16 January 2019

    Sugar: Sugar prices have rebounded further into higher territory over the past week. Despite some sideways price action, specs have helped drive sugar into positive territory overnight. The US Federal Shutdown has stopped the weekly Commitment of Traders report; however, respected market analysts presume specs sit at a comfortable net short position. The overnight price action suggesting a sudden shift (short covering) by specs. Elsewhere, oil has rallied to sit comfortably on a $50/ barrel handle – OPEC product...
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  • QCS Market Report 17 December 2018

    Sugar

    • Still not much new news about for sugar.
    • Price action was highlighted by a weaker opening, but closed unchanged on Thursday night, remaining largely in line with oil and outside markets.
    • Harvesting conditions in India have been favourable to date—some reputable market intelligence sources are now revising their 2018–19 estimates higher on a better-than-expected Indian crop.

    Macro/currency commentary

    • A disappointing end to the week for the AUD, struggling to hold a USD 0.72 handle on Friday night, thanks mostly to weaker Chinese economic data and heightened concerns for global growth.
    • Looking ahead, this week’s economic data calendar is full of excitement and announcements.
    • The US calendar is highlighted by the FOMC rate announcement on Thursday morning, with the market pricing a 75 per cent chance of a 25 basis-point rate hike on Thursday.
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  • QCS Market Report 5 December 2018

    Sugar

    • Along with oil prices, sugar prices look to have stabilised in the last week.
    • Despite breaching a key 12.50 USc/lb level, sugar prices roared back toward 13 USc/lb later in the week.
    • With many of the northern hemisphere crops coming online now, much of the market’s attention will be focused there.

    Macro/currency commentary

    • A big week for the AUD, following comments from the US Fed, which prompted a rally back above USD 0.73.
    • The G20 summit held in South America over the weekend was highlighted by developments between China and the US on trade, with a 90-day window opened to see if they can come to an agreement on their differences.
    • Continued positivity on the trade front should continue to see the USD under pressure with the AUD likely to test USD 0.74.
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  • QCS Market Report 21 November 2018

    Sugar

    • Raw sugar futures continued to slip over the past week, leading to another week of losses.
    • With the recent month’s activity, the market has been as lively as ever.
    • India now moves into its most active period, with exports tipped to kick off throughout the Australian summer.
    • Following the failed attempt to break 13 USc/lb, sugar now appears vulnerable to a move lower, depending on Indian exports, which could surprise to the upside.

    Macro/currency commentary

    • The AUD had another solid week, closing near the week’s high above USD 0.73.
    • Price action was mixed early in the week, with the AUD surging into higher ground from a stronger-than-expected local employment print.
    • Paired with weaker US yields and the broader USD, the AUD continued to trade positively.
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  • QCS Market Report 1 November 2018

    Sugar

    • The recent surge in raw sugar prices stalled across the back end of the week, as weaker whites and sentiment weighed on the NY#11.
    • Price action was lively for the month of October as specs helped push prices from 11 to 14 USc/lb.
    • The macro environment remains volatile, with equities and stocks giving up the past 12 months’ worth of gains.
    • Giving back recent gains following the election results in Brazil, the real has followed sugar prices lower this week.

    Macro/currency commentary

    • A choppy week for the AUD, with numerous attempts above USD 0.71 being rejected.
    • There were some key data points this week as, local Q3 CPI was received on target.
    • Local trade balances today beat expectations, helping the AUD one per cent higher to USD 0.7145, at the time of writing.
    • As always, ongoing trade issues between the US and China are never far from mind.
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  • QCS Market Report 25 October 2018

    Sugar

    • Sugar prices have continued to rally for almost four straight weeks.
    • As the Brazilian election plays out, a stronger real has seen ethanol parity at 16 USc/lb.
    • In India, question marks are being raised over exports and whether the 5mmt mandatory exports will be filled.

    Macro/currency commentary

    • Increased investor caution has seen the AUD chop lower over the last week.
    • Despite testing newer lows, the AUD closed the week at USD 0.71.
    • Local unemployment numbers highlighted the data calendar for the week, whilst the RBA minutes showed policy makers’ concerns about tighter lending standards.
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