• Weekly Market Report 11 December 2017

    Sugar

    • Raw sugar futures struggled to hold a 15-USc/lb handle, reversing gains from the past six weeks.
    • The start of the Indian harvest has seen higher-than-expected estimates, adding further downward pressures.
    • With the Brazilian tail end likely to favour ethanol over sugar, it is unlikely to bring us back to balance.

    Currency/macro commentary

    • Recent AUD strength has all but evaporated for the time being, as the USD returns to the forefront.
    • AUD has tested underlying support at USD 0.75.
    • RBA was unchanged in rates and commentary, with strong local retail sales highlighting AUD price action.
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  • Weekly Market Report 27 November 2017

    Sugar

    • Raw sugar futures looked likely to retrace all recent gains on a material reduction (20,000 lots) in the net short spec position , but prices regained prior week losses to finish back above 15 USc/lb.
    • The Indian harvest is underway with some estimates already being ratcheted higher to around 26 million tons.

    Currency/macro comments

    • AUD was buoyed back above USD 0.76 by uncertainty around the Fed’s inflation forecasts.
    • US Fed concerns that inflation may remain lower for longer saw the USD and yields slip.
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  • Weekly Market Report 13 November 2017

    Sugar

    • Raw sugar futures have enjoyed consecutive gains on the week, with the prompt March18 surging from 14.23 USc/lb on Monday to settle near 14.99 USc/lb on Friday night.
    • Global surplus and tightness concerns were moderated as the potential for less sugar in Brazil held participants’ attention.

    Currency/macro comments

    • A quietly choppy week for the AUD, sitting in a 74-point range.
    • Downside pressure was relieved as plans for US tax reform stalled, allowing the AUD to hold back above USD 0.7650.
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  • Weekly Market Report 7 November 2017

    Sugar

    • Raw sugar futures struggled to garner further support following a run above 14.50 USc/lb last week, with the March18 contract settling the week 25 points in the red.
    • Looking ahead, with little new fundamental news, we expect the market to continue to cycle well-trod ground in the 13-15 USc/lb range.

    Currency/macro commentary

    • AUD ended slightly lower for the week, as a softer retail sales print gave back mid-week gains.
    • In the US, the FOMC left rates on hold as expected, maintaining they are on track for a December rate hike.
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  • Weekly Market Report 30 October 2017

    Sugar

    • Raw sugar futures broke free of recent range bound conditions on Friday night, posting three per cent gains on the day.
    • Prompted by technical indicators, the rally sustained higher over the remainder of the session to settle near fresh highs.

    Currency/macro comments

    • A resurgent USD has seen the AUD fall two cents over the past week.
    • USD has continued to firm on the likelihood of Trump tax reform getting up.
    • The new Fed Chair will be announced in coming weeks, with the leading candidates both considered more hawkish than the incumbent.
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  • Weekly Market Report 23 October 2017

    Sugar

    • A choppy week for raw sugar futures, prompt Mar18 rejected at attempts to break recent technical resistance at 14.40 USc/lb.
    • Prices have remained range bound as the well-known market levers continue to offer no fresh directional change.

    Curency/macro comments

    • USD strength returned to the forefront last week with increased likelihood that US President Trump’s tax reform will get up.
    • Steady gains made on positive local employment data stalled, with the AUD being shunted to the bottom end of USD 0.78.
    Read full article

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