• QCS Market Report 25 October 2018 25 October 2018

    Sugar

    • Sugar prices have continued to rally for almost four straight weeks.
    • As the Brazilian election plays out, a stronger real has seen ethanol parity at 16 USc/lb.
    • In India, question marks are being raised over exports and whether the 5mmt mandatory exports will be filled.

    Macro/currency commentary

    • Increased investor caution has seen the AUD chop lower over the last week.
    • Despite testing newer lows, the AUD closed the week at USD 0.71.
    • Local unemployment numbers highlighted the data calendar for the week, whilst the RBA minutes showed policy makers’ concerns about tighter lending standards.
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  • QCS Market Report 17 October 2018 17 October 2018

    Sugar

    • Several attempts to break 13 USc/lb did nothing to deter the market’s hunger for higher prices in the week.
    • The trade players met at the London Sugar conference last week, expressing mixed views on the current state of play.
    • Sugar remains difficult at present, with rising ethanol and a stronger Brazilian real bolstering ethanol parity, whilst the speculative market continues to get short into the market’s strength.

    Macro/currency commentary

    • US bond yields highlighted the week as the ten-year bonds posted seven-year highs at 3.26 per cent, reflecting the US economy and interest expectations.
    • While the market is now short, the bigger picture of US and China trade troubles looms.
    • Nothing is preventing the AUD from popping up on pockets of weakness in US data and trade concerns, however, it is difficult now to see the AUD above USD 0.73.
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  • QCS Market Report 2 October 2018 2 October 2018

    Sugar

    • The sugar market received confirmation this week of the long-expected Government subsidy for Indian farmers, with the announcement of a five-million-tonne export subsidy.
    • The market will sit tight as we wait for signs of the Indian export program kicking off.

    Macro/currency commentary

    • The AUD chopped into lower ground as the US FOMC meeting provided the only stimulus of significance for the week, with the FOMC raising rates on Thursday morning.
    • A busy week ahead for the economic data calendar, with the RBA meeting on Tuesday before we see local trade and retail sales data released later in the week.
    • US monthly, trade balance and non-farm payrolls print data will be released on Friday night.
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