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Weekly Market Report 18 January 2017 18 January 2017
SUGAR UPDATE Raw sugar futures staged a recovery over the holiday period as a mixture of new money and fundamental uncertainty drove prices above 21 USc/lb. A strong India theme highlighted price action as concerns for early mill closures in Maharashtra supported the change in sentiment. In spite of a better than expected Brazilian crop, analysts remain of the view that supply will remain tight for 2017. Chinese stock releases are expected (albeit, very slowly) to fill the potential absence of Indian sugar. With t...Read full article -
Weekly Market Report 9 January 2017 9 January 2017
SUGAR UPDATE A shortened trading week did little to affect a continued rally in the front March-17 contract. Covering a 160 point range, March-17 traded from an early week low at 19.58 to post fresh 2 month highs of 21.18 USc/lb. News of delays to the Thai crop, continued reduction estimates for Indian and speculative buying, presumably led sugar higher. The latest Commitment of Traders report confirmed assumptions, that specs were mixed buyers and sellers of sugar this week. Net buying prevailing as new money sa...Read full article -
Weekly Market Report 3 January 2017 3 January 2017
SUGAR UPDATE As markets wound down for the last week of 2016, raw sugar futures surged higher on concerns over a potentially disappointing Indian harvest. Prompt March-17 managed a 150 point bounce in 3 days as prices tracked toward the key 20 cent level. The latest Commitment of Traders report supported the markets constructive sentiment, specs showing a mere 1,000 lot reduction to 132,000 net longs. UNICA released their figures for 1H December as expected. Production looks set to finish at 35.5 million tons of ...Read full article -
Weekly Market Report 4 May 2016 4 May 2016
SUGAR UPDATE The latest UNICA number has the Brazilian crop running at record levels, significantly above the last year. Ethanol demand is still sluggish, but with a crop that is expected to test the crushing capacity of the entire sector, the ability to switch from sugar to ethanol will be less important for the mills as actually getting the cane crushed. The weather continues to be warm and dry, enabling the cane to come out of the field but some are talking now about the threat to the replant given the dry. It ...Read full article -
Weekly Market Report 11 May 2016 11 May 2016
SUGAR UPDATE As we have been talking about for a while now, the market is caught between tight supply in Asia balanced against a perceived record crop in brazil. The upcoming deficit has been well flagged but a general push back into commodities has given the spec community the confidence to move to a record long position. No sooner had that long been established, the market ‘washed out’ 80 points lower. Volumes are lower than usual, and “air pockets” where buying and selling order cause the market to gap ...Read full article -
Weekly Market Report 19 May 2016 19 May 2016
SUGAR UPDATE Sugar has continued to trade at the top of its recent range for the last week. NY Sugar week is on and a few interesting (and very bullish) headlines have been emerging. The huge Brazil crop is well and truly known to the market so the market is looking to for new stories. The two main stories centre around the lack of rain in Asia. The biggest headline so far is that India’s replanting for next year will be as much 35% below this year’s level in Maharashtra. To realise the scale of this, note tha...Read full article -
Weekly Market Report 30 May 2016 30 May 2016
SUGAR UPDATE Sugar has continued to push higher at the front of the curve with specs adding to an already record long. The market estimate for their position is around long 310k contracts (15.5mmt)!! Near term spreads have rallied as well, suggesting those expecting the market to move lower have begun to throw in the towel. The mood from NY sugar week was constructive, with the major question being whether near term the market has pushed too far and can we see a pullback. There were a few major highlights : ...Read full article -
Weekly Market Report 16 June 2016 16 June 2016
SUGAR UPDATE The recent nearly 200 push higher in sugar came about with a very small increase in the spec posi-on. This would imply commercial interests have capitulated and covered back their shorts. Given the extent of the move higher and the small change in spec positioning it would also suggest they have been selling (taking profit) into this rally. Following the weather, much-needed rain in Brazil has given back into dry weather. The monsoon is on track in India and it is raining in Thailand on and off. D...Read full article -
Weekly Market Report 28 June 2016 28 June 2016
Brexit questions and what it means for us Last Friday, against market and bookmaker views, the UK voted to leave the European Union. David Cameron (UK PM) resigned instantly and it appears Jeremy Corbyn’s position as opposition leader is no longer tenable as 11 of his shadow cabinet have resigned in protest. A new Prime Minister will be announced by September 2nd and it is expected they will enact Article 50, the EU clause that allows for two-year negotiations to begin for the exit. Europe is wanting a quick exi...Read full article -
Weekly Market Report 19 July 2016 19 July 2016
SUGAR UPDATE The solid run higher has certainly stalled and the market is marking time (in a very corrective phase) wai ng for the catalyst for the next move. The market has sold 200 points lower from 21c to 19c with basically zero change in the speculative long. Whether they chose to start liquidating positions if the market was to push lower will be key. The fact they have watched a 200 point fall and not been cutting positions suggests they are still comfortable with the longer-term outlook. The previously m...Read full article