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Weekly Market Report 19 April 2017 19 April 2017
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- Raw sugar futures have traded choppily over a 100 point range this week.
- Tests of 17 and 16 USc/lb have been met with decent resistance and support.
- Looking ahead, Brazil becomes a key market driver with the start of their 17/18 harvest.
Currency/macro comments
- AUD price action has been highlighted by a recovery back toward 76 cents.
- RBA continues to highlight concern for the local housing market and employment growth.
- Near term, AUD remains under pressure with commodities continuing to slide lower.
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Weekly Market Report 29 May 2017 29 May 2017
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- The slide continues as raw sugar futures fell to 13-month lows of 15.01 USc/lb.
- Ethanol prices and parity are expected to fall below 14 USc/lb.
- From a technical and fundamental aspect, the odds are stacked against sugar.
Currency/macro comments
- Time spent above 0.75 USD was cut short twice over the past week.
- Short term, the AUD looks comfortable in the 0.74–0.75 USD range.
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Monthly Market Report April 2017 1 April 2017
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- A bounce off 15.15 USc/lb highlighted price action for the month.
- The approach toward ethanol parity (15 cents) saw sugar back above 16 USc/lb.
- In the short term, the view remains neutral with weather risks driving any moves higher.
Currency/macro comments
- A joyless month for the AUD posting five-month lows at 0.7330 USD.
- AUD weakness attributed to a combination of a firming USD and soft commodity prices.
- Further clarity and responses to reduced OPEC production will hold markets near term.
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Weekly Market Report 24 May 2017 24 May 2017
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- The BRL collapsed, causing a flurry of Brazilian producer pricing to market.
- Sugar hit another stop as China announced additional import tariffs.
- Raw sugar futures have struggled to maintain a 16 USc/lb handle, settling below that.
Currency/macro comments
- The AUD was grinding higher over the week on USD and Trump weakness.
- Locally, we saw strong employment numbers, which aided the AUD’s leg up.
- AUD weakness was short lived, as the FOMC suggested a June rate hike may not occur.
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Weekly Market Report 9 May 2017 9 May 2017
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- Down another 5 per cent (80 points), raw sugar futures continue to slide.
- Weakness across the board is attributed to a softening commodity complex.
- Going forward, no aggressive outlook for sugar unless faced with a weather event.
Currency/macro comments
- A recovery back above 0.75 USD was short lived for the AUD.
- Weakness in commodities helped the AUD to a five-month low at 0.737 USD.
- As expected, the RBA left rates on hold, maintaining their neutral stance going forward.
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Weekly Market Report 2 May 2017 2 May 2017
SUGAR Consecutive weeks of decline were reversed on Friday as the May-17 contract expired 86 points higher at 16.04 USc/lb. A record delivery of 1.5mmt of raws delivered to the tape. A sole deliverer and multiple receivers has the market conducive on a change in sentiment. Rather, we believe this expiry helping develop the theme of overestimated consumption and higher stocks. UNICA released their first report for 17/18 crop, data showed significantly lower numbers than the same time last year. Additionally, the la...Read full article -
Weekly Market Report 20 June 2017 20 June 2017
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- A continuance of spec selling continued to drag raw sugar futures lower.
- Ethanol parity is now below 13 USc/lb, with a gloomy fundamental backdrop.
- Jul-17 expiry is in two weeks, and will give insight into the physical movements ahead.
Currency/macro comments
- A choppy week for the AUD, which made fresh two-month highs above USD 0.76.
- The US FOMC hiked rates 0.25 per cent as expected.
- RBA minutes out today are expected to reinforce a neutral tone going forward.