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Weekly Market Report 1 September 2016 1 September 2016
SUGAR UPDATE The sugar market has been in a sideways range for the last 13 weeks. The bullish and bearish forces in play haven't changed dramatically in that time, but volumes have been low, suggesting the range will eventually break. To recap, the bullish camp are pointing to flat production growth in Brazil next season, a lack of rain in Thailand leading to no materially additional production next year and a crop in India not big enough for material exports the following year. The bearish camp point to the fact ...Read full article -
Weekly Market Report 28 November 2016 28 November 2016
SUGAR UPDATE Sugar futures continued to fall in recent weeks, with the Mar17 contract now some 4 USc/lb lower than the high of 23.90 USc/lb seen on October 6. This move has seen the A$/tonne price correct to A$580 p/t at present. The move lower in sugar prices is only partially explained by sugar fundamentals. A broadly stronger USD has taken the market by surprise post the US Federal election. Interest rates have jumped higher in the US in response to Trump’s election, with a wall of investor money into the ...Read full article -
Weekly Market Report 20 December 2016 20 December 2016
SUGAR UPDATE A further downward bias was seen in raw sugar futures the past week. Prices fell another 100+ points, week on week. A continued speculative liquidation, uptick in production in India and headlines China were looking to offload 300 kmt of stock, highlighted the week. As expected, the latest Commitment of Traders report illustrated a 31,000 net long reduction to 155,000 lots. By market close tonight, we expect to have shrunk by at least another 20,000 lots. Last week, ISMA released a constructive outlo...Read full article -
Weekly Market Report 14 December 2016 14 December 2016
SUGAR UPDATE Recent price action for raw sugar futures have been highlighted by a mass reduction in speculative net longs. The market has seen specs lighten up overweight positions immensely, with the belief, there is more room fall. A lack of bullish enticement has made the market more unattractive for user longs toftenter. An announcement by Petrobras (Brazil) to raise fuel prices last week temporarily quelled concerns. Prompt, March-17 trading up toward the all-important 200 day moving average (20 USc/lb) b...Read full article -
Weekly Market Report 5 December 2016 5 December 2016
SUGAR UPDATE Raw sugar futures have remained in a downward bias over the last week. A midweek run toward 20.50 USc/lb appeared weak-kneed as prices fell on reports of a Chinese import quota of 1.8 million tons by Government. An import quota will be key for prices in the short/medium term as this could bring demand forward with much expectation for front loading of pricing. Given this duty, we expect smuggling to increase as a result. The latest UNICA report was released as expected, with cumulative production n...Read full article -
Monthly Market Report 15 January 2017 15 January 2017
SUGAR UPDATE Following a more active Christmas period, raw sugar futures have stabilized in to a 20 – 21.50 USc/lb range. Further uncertainty around Indian imports and China stock releases have seen prompt March-17 comfortable in the range. Indian import requirements (1.5–2 million tons) have been countered by the potential for further stock releases by Chinese Government. Trade flows remain tight through Q2, with the outlook beyond Q3 constructive. Despite a delayed start, the current Thai harvest is doing we...Read full article -
Weekly Market Report 8 February 2017 8 February 2017
SUGAR Another failed test at 21 USc/lb has highlighted price action over the past week. A lack of fresh news continues to be overshadowed by further debate over India’s shortfall/ import requirement, China drawing down on stocks and spec positioning ahead of the Mar17 expiry. Trade flows in 2017 remain tight; we expect a squeeze in the market through Q2 2017. Analysts have persisted with estimates of an Indian import requirement of 2 million tonnes this season, while China have released a further 250,000 tonnes....Read full article -
Weekly Market Report 28 March 2017 28 March 2017
SUGAR Despite continuing to fall week on week, prompt raw sugar futures have found decent support at 17 USc/lb. In the following sessions, prompt May-17 managed to test 18 cents before a slight correction to current levels sees the market largely unchanged near 17.70 USc/lb. In Brazil, the Government is expected to raise CIDE tax on gasoline which will provide sustenance to domestic sugar prices and ethanol. In India, the arm wrestle between producers and government persists. Domestic prices have drifted off, with...Read full article -
Weekly Market Report 2 March 2017 2 March 2017
SUGAR A weak-kneed run in to expiry saw March-17 fall 169 points. Rolling off the board at 19.31 USc/lb, expiry was highlighted by a single receiver of 1.2 million tonnes. Prices appear to have stabilized overnight, prompt May-17 bouncing off back into positive territory. With March-17 expiry out of the way, attention returns the fundamental backdrop – India, China and Brazil – hanging over the market. A mixed start for Brazil saw latest UNICA report showing 127 kmt production at the end of February – prelim...Read full article -
Monthly Market Report March 2017 1 March 2017
SUGAR A remarkably weak month for raw sugar futures as prompt May-17 fell 230 points (18.50 – 16.12 USc/lb). Spreads have been savaged as the sharp fall in flat price reflects a market moving back into surplus. The weakening spreads have also contributed to the large speculative exit as it remains too expensive for investors to roll positions down the board. As Brazil begins their harvest, we expect ethanol prices to dip on the natural increase in supply. Anhydrous ethanol parity just below 15 cents may raise c...Read full article