• QCS Weekly Market Report 26 March 2018 26 March 2018

    Sugar

    • On the back of further upward crop revisions in Thailand and India, raw sugar futures printed fresh lows, seen last in September 2015.
    • In addition to further upward crop revisions, the Indian Government scrapped their export quota, as fears of even more sugar on the market shook the global market.
    • Brazil and its ethanol output will be watched by more as many speculate on how much sugar and ethanol is produced this coming season.

    Macro/currency commentary

    • The AUD is currently being led by a strong macro USD and Euro theme.
    • A short week for markets given the Good Friday public holiday, with very little on the economic data calendar.
    • Expect price action to ramp up again next week as markets return from the long weekend and there is a bigger window for US President Trump to reply to China’s trade responses.
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  • QCS Weekly Market Report 8 March 2018 8 March 2018

    Sugar

    • Raw sugar futures have struggled to break free of the last month’s 13–14 USc/lb range.
    • Upward revision of the Indian crop from 26mmt to 29mmt drove the market lower on Wednesday.
    • The market is still ‘talking’ about a statistical surplus, however, we are yet to see this manifest in the physical trade flows.

    Macro/currency commentary

    • A volatile month for the AUD, testing highs near USD 0.80 before sliding to near USD 0.77.
    • AUD strength stalled in response to FOMC indications that US interest rates may have room to move higher, with faster-than-expected inflation growth.
    • The RBA left rates on hold, with minimal change to the policy statement.
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