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Weekly Market Report 27 November 2017 27 November 2017
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- Raw sugar futures looked likely to retrace all recent gains on a material reduction (20,000 lots) in the net short spec position , but prices regained prior week losses to finish back above 15 USc/lb.
- The Indian harvest is underway with some estimates already being ratcheted higher to around 26 million tons.
Currency/macro comments
- AUD was buoyed back above USD 0.76 by uncertainty around the Fed’s inflation forecasts.
- US Fed concerns that inflation may remain lower for longer saw the USD and yields slip.
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Weekly Market Report 13 November 2017 13 November 2017
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- Raw sugar futures have enjoyed consecutive gains on the week, with the prompt March18 surging from 14.23 USc/lb on Monday to settle near 14.99 USc/lb on Friday night.
- Global surplus and tightness concerns were moderated as the potential for less sugar in Brazil held participants’ attention.
Currency/macro comments
- A quietly choppy week for the AUD, sitting in a 74-point range.
- Downside pressure was relieved as plans for US tax reform stalled, allowing the AUD to hold back above USD 0.7650.
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Weekly Market Report 7 November 2017 7 November 2017
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- Raw sugar futures struggled to garner further support following a run above 14.50 USc/lb last week, with the March18 contract settling the week 25 points in the red.
- Looking ahead, with little new fundamental news, we expect the market to continue to cycle well-trod ground in the 13-15 USc/lb range.
Currency/macro commentary
- AUD ended slightly lower for the week, as a softer retail sales print gave back mid-week gains.
- In the US, the FOMC left rates on hold as expected, maintaining they are on track for a December rate hike.
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Weekly Market Report 30 October 2017 30 October 2017
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- Raw sugar futures broke free of recent range bound conditions on Friday night, posting three per cent gains on the day.
- Prompted by technical indicators, the rally sustained higher over the remainder of the session to settle near fresh highs.
Currency/macro comments
- A resurgent USD has seen the AUD fall two cents over the past week.
- USD has continued to firm on the likelihood of Trump tax reform getting up.
- The new Fed Chair will be announced in coming weeks, with the leading candidates both considered more hawkish than the incumbent.
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Weekly Market Report 23 October 2017 23 October 2017
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- A choppy week for raw sugar futures, prompt Mar18 rejected at attempts to break recent technical resistance at 14.40 USc/lb.
- Prices have remained range bound as the well-known market levers continue to offer no fresh directional change.
Curency/macro comments
- USD strength returned to the forefront last week with increased likelihood that US President Trump’s tax reform will get up.
- Steady gains made on positive local employment data stalled, with the AUD being shunted to the bottom end of USD 0.78.
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Weekly Market Report 10 October 2017 10 October 2017
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- A choppy week for raw sugar futures, with prices tracking higher before settling lower.
- Ethanol parity remains solid above current market levels, so we expect yields to slip somewhat for sugar.
Currency/macro comments
- USD continues to garner strength as the likelihood of a December rate hike increases.
- AUD was naturally weaker, printing fresh three-month lows at USD 0.7733.
- The RBA left rates on hold – as expected – with little change in the way of commentary.
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Weekly Market Report 26 September 2017 26 September 2017
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- Softening over the week, raw sugar futures opened at the high before closing below the 14-USc/lb handle sustained in the last month.
- The soon-to-expire Oct17 contract was the biggest loser, down nearly 4 per cent on the week.
Currency/macro comments
- Further clarity around the Fed’s balance sheet normalisation stalled AUD strength this week.
- The AUD was rejected above USD 0.81 and eventually closed lower.
- Expect the AUD to sit tight in the current AUD 0.79 – 0.80 range this week.
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Weekly Market Report 19 September 2017 19 September 2017
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- Raw sugar futures finished up on a positive note last week.
- Largely led by funds reducing record net short positions, the fundamental backdrop remains somewhat muted.
Currency/macro comments
- Despite a down-trending week, the AUD maintained an USD 0.80 handle in to the week end.
- Local employment data continues to outperform, though AUD appreciation stalled on weaker Chinese data.
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Weekly Market Report 12 September 2017 12 September 2017
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- With a shortened week owing to the US public holiday on Monday, raw sugar futures traded positively to the week end.
- Despite weather concerns in the US and further gasoline price hikes in Brazil, sugar positivity persisted.
Currency/macro comments
- The AUD posted fresh two-year highs this week (USD 0.81) as concerns for another rate hike by the US Fed this year shortened.
- As expected, the RBA left interest rates on hold, maintaining comfort with the current view on policy.
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Weekly Market Report 4 September 2017 4 September 2017
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- A volatile week for raw sugar futures, which posted fresh four-week highs before being washed down in the final session of the week.
- The front Oct17/ Mar18 spread strengthened to –61 points as we near the Oct17 contract expiry.
Currency/macro comments
- A choppy old week for the AUD, failing at two attempts to surpass USD 0.80.
- Better-than-expected US GDP and employment data saw the USD gain ground, but this was short-lived as the AUD bounced back on Friday night following a soft US Payrolls print.