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Weekly Market Report 28 October 2014 28 October 2014
SUGAR / CURRENCY MARKET OVERVIEW: March 15 sugar spent last week drifting lower on poor volume sitting comfortably within the 15.51 to 17.25 range we have been in since the beginning of September. These are levels where trade is not getting facilitated: consumers had a chance much lower a few weeks back during the last weeks of the Oct contract, and producers have time on their side given the length of the Mar contract. We are somewhat bearish on prices at these levels following the Brazilian election. AUD has ...Read full article -
Weekly Market Report 4 November 2014 4 November 2014
SUGAR MARKET UPDATE March 15 sugar opened the week lower, following the Brazilian election, squeezed for the next two sessions and closed the week near its lows. Whilst the recent lows of 15.90 have held, a test of these to contract lows at 15.50 seem on the cards. Volumes have been poor, highlighting that these levels aren't facilitating trade. As we have spoken about previously, here and now, there is no rush. Producers have months to run on this current contract (and generally speaking are getting a boost from ...Read full article -
Weekly Market Report 11 November 2014 11 November 2014
SUGAR MARKET UPDATE March 15 sugar pushed lower on the week, breaking the 15.90 support and not looking back. The low was made on Thursday, with Friday seeing a short squeeze, following Petrobras’ decision to raise gas prices 3%, and diesel 5%. Post election meetings had Petrobras looking for an increase of 10%, so on the margin we see little respite for producers with input costs (diesel) rising more, and no ability to move production over to ethanol until next season. To add to the bearish weight out of Brazil...Read full article -
Weekly Market Report 18 November 2014 18 November 2014
SUGAR MARKET UPDATE March 15 sugar squeezed higher last Tuesday in what appears to have been just stop loss buying. The rally continued slightly further on Wednesday, and fell away to have all the gains for the week, erased by Monday night this week. Volumes have been moderate (at best). As we have mentioned before, producers are not in a hurry to sell given the length of the contract and consumers are looking at the fundamental backdrop of a stronger USD/BRL, a larger Indian Crop and rain in Brazil and are let...Read full article -
Weekly Market report 6 January 2015 6 January 2015
SUGAR MARKET UPDATE Sugar finished 2014 on the back foot and has started 2015 in the same way. Life of contract lows were made in Mar at 14.07 and a small reversal ensued following the straight line move from 15.20 just before Christmas. The Indian crop is moving along at a very swift pace, especially compared to last year, with the ‘failed monsoon’ chatter looking more like hope than reality. There is also plenty of talk of export subsidies, with Pakistan beating India to announce first. On a slightly more...Read full article -
Weekly Market Report 13 January 2015 13 January 2015
SUGAR MARKET UPDATE Sugar rallied dramatically on Tuesday last week in what appears to have been a series of stop loss buying finding very little selling. More stops were triggered on Wednesday, over 1500, but they met with very strong selling from all different types of sellers. There has been some talk about January being very dry in Brazil, but given the good December rainfall, and the forecast of above average rainfall for the end of January, we feel the ‘price has been driving the news’. It has been o...Read full article -
Weekly Market Report 10 March 2015 10 March 2015
USD MACRO CURRENCY UPDATE: The data in the US has continued to print strongly, with the latest non-farm payrolls exceeding all expectations printing close to +300k. This has primed expectation the Federal Reserve will remove the ‘patience’ comment in their statement when they meet on March 18th and will move to being data dependent for the next move in rates higher. This means, assuming the data continues to print strongly, the US will begin a hiking cycle some time between June and September this year. The US...Read full article -
Weekly Market Report 17 March 2015 17 March 2015
USD MACRO CURRENCY UPDATE The USD has continued to appreciate although with slowing momentum. The highlight of the week was the capitula on style move in USD/BRL trading from 3.06 to a high on 3.27 on Friday. AUD/USD moved lower in the beginning of the week, squeezed in the middle and it currently working at the bottom of the recent range. Key events this week are the RBA minutes which should leave the door open to further rate cuts should the economy continue to struggle; and the FOMC meeting in which it is widel...Read full article -
Weekly Market Report 31 March 2015 31 March 2015
USD MACRO CURRENCY UPDATE: The post FOMC USD sell off appears to be complete with most sugar relevant currencies resuming their downtrend. AUD and NZD both technically broke higher only to fail and move back into the range. From a charting (technical) point of view this would suggest a test of the bottom of the range. 7550 for AUD and 7200 for NZD. We maintain our short AUD position looking for low 70s. Key data out this week are US employment on Friday night and the RBA decision the following Tuesday. The market...Read full article -
Weekly Market Report 14 April 2015 14 April 2015
USD/MACRO CURRENCY UPDATE: Sideways price action has dominated the USD in the moves since the Easter break. The market is receiving very mixed signals from the Federal reserve with Governor Lacker calling for the first interest rate hike in June 2015, while Governor Kocherlakota is suggesting they should wait until the second half of next year. This sort of uncertainty would suggest the USD will struggle for conviction, either up or down. Elsewhere, the story is different. The European Central Bank meets Thurs...Read full article