-
Weekly Market Report 11 August 2014 11 August 2014
SUGAR MARKET OVERVIEW Following the large downward reversal on Monday post the Cosan terminal, October sugar remained under pressure for the rest of the week. The largest mover by far was the Oct/Mar spread which traded from a low of –1.85 to a high of –1.61. Fundamentally, the excess supply and lack of demand seems to be the sole focus of the market at the moment, with either the flat price needing to move lower or the spread to weaken further or both to help solve the problem. Friday saw a small bounce (+9) ...Read full article -
Weekly Marketing Report 19 August 2014 19 August 2014
SUGAR MARKET OVERVIEW The Brazilian campaign is continuing at rapid pace, with a few rain delays that could add to a the likely short tail later on. ATR levels are higher and the sugar mix has remained elevated despite sugar trading under ethanol parity. The Indian monsoon is somewhat patchy with flooding in UP and drought leading to seed shortages in Tamil Nadu. Maharashtra mills are expecting to crush an additional 9mt of cane (+12%) All of these factors are continuing to weigh on the outlook for sugar price ...Read full article -
Weekly Market Report 27 August 2014 27 August 2014
SUGAR MARKET OVERVIEW October sugar broke through 16c last week and has been unable to recapture this level. Even after a UNICA downgrade to the Brazilian crop (546 mt), the prices remain under pressure. Excess stocks in Thailand and benign weather in Brazil and India is weighing on prices. For the first time in a while, there are some positives on the radar. Prices have moved low enough to be facilitating trade, Brazilian producers have been seen washing out of some sugar sales to switch to ethanol and there is s...Read full article -
Weekly Market Report 3 September 2014 3 September 2014
SUGAR MARKET OVERVIEW Current themes have continued in the sugar market. Excess supply near term with hope of a smaller Indian crop, rainfall shortage in Thailand and the effects of lack of husbandry in Brazil for 14/15 dominating. New contract lows in Oct were followed by what could only be called a short squeeze. 16.00 was a large resistance level that held firm. Near term, a test of the contract lows seems on the cards with the potential for a test of 15.00. There is good evidence of Brazilian producers washing...Read full article -
Weekly Market Report 8 September 2014 8 September 2014
SUGAR MARKET OVERVIEW In a holiday-shortened week, Sugar continued its slide lower. “Technical” buying (read: short squeeze) on Tuesday gave way to three solid days of selling, with October finishing the week on new contract lows at 15.00c. The Oct/Mar spread weakened to –2.23. We note a few (bullish) changes in market dynamics: Brazil physical premiums have rallied back to positive; ethanol parity is creating washouts; Oct/Mar spread has widened enough to facilitate a profitable roll for those able; Oct/...Read full article -
Weekly Market Report 16 September 2014 16 September 2014
SUGAR MARKET OVERVIEW The slide in sugar has been relentless, with Oct falling 28% with almost no pullback. The Oct/Mar spread has weakened to –260. Brazil physical premiums are now well and truly positive, showing the poor quality Thai overhang is driving the October contract lower. The specs added only 20k to their shorts, but we witnessed 4 more days of unrelenting selling after this. So the market will be expecting a much larger short position, when next reported on Saturday. To this point in me, Brazilia...Read full article -
Weekly Market Report 22 September 2014 22 September 2014
SUGAR MARKET OVERVIEW Sugar continued the relentless slide lower over the last week with October making new lows most days. We have been hearing of producer selling just above the market and when the liquidity wasn't there in the outright position, they were selling in the Oct/Mar spread to be able to move the required volume. By any metric #11 is oversold, but the selling we are seeing currently is people being forced to market not opportunistic selling. Could this keep going even though we have fallen over 30% f...Read full article -
Weekly Market Report 6 October 2014 6 October 2014
SUGAR MARKET OVERVIEW The October contract rolled off the board this week with significantly less sugar going to ‘the tape’ than had been expected. With March coming on as the front month at quite a premium to the Oct close, the contract was under pressure through until Friday when the selling seemed to have cleared and the market rallied strongly. In terms of information flow the situation is somewhat more balanced (slightly less bullish) than last week. CS Brazil and Thailand have seen some good rain and...Read full article -
Weekly Market Report 14 October 2014 14 October 2014
SUGAR MARKET OVERVIEW: Perhaps due to London Sugar week, volumes were light. The market got long positioning itself for bullish UNICA production numbers. In a typical case of buy the rumour sell the fact, the market got the numbers it was looking for and promptly sold off 70 points. The mood from London was somewhat mixed. There is acknowledgement of the vast supply of stocks sitting both at origin and destination, yet there is a belief that the Thai drought, Brazil miller stress leading to lack of husbandry a...Read full article -
Weekly Market Report 21 October 2014 21 October 2014
SUGAR MARKET OVERVIEW Following the volatile October expiry, prices have settled into a small tight range on low volumes. Producers seem happy to sell approaching and over 17c, and we suspect anyone that needed to buy sugar would have taken advantage of the large slide in prices pre expiry. It seems to us, no one is in a hurry to transact business right now. Similarly, we are looking for trade flow surpluses to dominate in the first half of the 2015 and are looking for Mar/May spread to widen out further into c...Read full article