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Weekly Market Report 14 March 2016 14 March 2016
SUGAR UPDATE On light volumes sugar has pushed back towards the top of the range. In a macro sense very little seems to have changed to be driving this move higher. The net spec position has pushed long an additional 50k for the week and now stands at +100k. On the positive side, USD/BRL has fallen away to 3.58 with BRL shorts being covered into the potential for the impeachment of the President. There was some market talk around suggesting 75% of the upcoming crop has already been priced, taking away some of the ...Read full article -
Weekly Market Report 5 April 2016 5 April 2016
SUGAR UPDATE The speculative and fund community caught the market by surprise over the weekend, with what was expected to be a reduction in their long position (into the 68 point fall last Tuesday) actually was an increase. It now appears more and more likely this is where the majority of the move up from 12.50 has come from. So where to now? Prices have washed out from 16.77 to 14.62 in the space of a week. But the long position of this sector is still very large by historical standards. Could they go to all the ...Read full article -
Weekly Market Report 12 April 2016 12 April 2016
SUGAR UPDATE The sugar market is currently the subject to two very different influences that are both fighting for overall control. On one hand, global commodities are rallying due to optimism in Chinese policy and the belief that the Fed will maintain interest rates at a low enough level to allow growth whilst having the cost of money virtually free. This has led to a “risk asset” rally—equity markets, commodities and commodity currencies (AUD, CAD, NZD) have all benefitted. Added to this, the sugar market...Read full article -
Weekly Market Report 18 January 2017 18 January 2017
SUGAR UPDATE Raw sugar futures staged a recovery over the holiday period as a mixture of new money and fundamental uncertainty drove prices above 21 USc/lb. A strong India theme highlighted price action as concerns for early mill closures in Maharashtra supported the change in sentiment. In spite of a better than expected Brazilian crop, analysts remain of the view that supply will remain tight for 2017. Chinese stock releases are expected (albeit, very slowly) to fill the potential absence of Indian sugar. With t...Read full article -
Weekly Market Report 9 January 2017 9 January 2017
SUGAR UPDATE A shortened trading week did little to affect a continued rally in the front March-17 contract. Covering a 160 point range, March-17 traded from an early week low at 19.58 to post fresh 2 month highs of 21.18 USc/lb. News of delays to the Thai crop, continued reduction estimates for Indian and speculative buying, presumably led sugar higher. The latest Commitment of Traders report confirmed assumptions, that specs were mixed buyers and sellers of sugar this week. Net buying prevailing as new money sa...Read full article -
Weekly Market Report 3 January 2017 3 January 2017
SUGAR UPDATE As markets wound down for the last week of 2016, raw sugar futures surged higher on concerns over a potentially disappointing Indian harvest. Prompt March-17 managed a 150 point bounce in 3 days as prices tracked toward the key 20 cent level. The latest Commitment of Traders report supported the markets constructive sentiment, specs showing a mere 1,000 lot reduction to 132,000 net longs. UNICA released their figures for 1H December as expected. Production looks set to finish at 35.5 million tons of ...Read full article -
Weekly Market Report 4 May 2016 4 May 2016
SUGAR UPDATE The latest UNICA number has the Brazilian crop running at record levels, significantly above the last year. Ethanol demand is still sluggish, but with a crop that is expected to test the crushing capacity of the entire sector, the ability to switch from sugar to ethanol will be less important for the mills as actually getting the cane crushed. The weather continues to be warm and dry, enabling the cane to come out of the field but some are talking now about the threat to the replant given the dry. It ...Read full article -
Weekly Market Report 11 May 2016 11 May 2016
SUGAR UPDATE As we have been talking about for a while now, the market is caught between tight supply in Asia balanced against a perceived record crop in brazil. The upcoming deficit has been well flagged but a general push back into commodities has given the spec community the confidence to move to a record long position. No sooner had that long been established, the market ‘washed out’ 80 points lower. Volumes are lower than usual, and “air pockets” where buying and selling order cause the market to gap ...Read full article -
Weekly Market Report 19 May 2016 19 May 2016
SUGAR UPDATE Sugar has continued to trade at the top of its recent range for the last week. NY Sugar week is on and a few interesting (and very bullish) headlines have been emerging. The huge Brazil crop is well and truly known to the market so the market is looking to for new stories. The two main stories centre around the lack of rain in Asia. The biggest headline so far is that India’s replanting for next year will be as much 35% below this year’s level in Maharashtra. To realise the scale of this, note tha...Read full article -
Weekly Market Report 30 May 2016 30 May 2016
SUGAR UPDATE Sugar has continued to push higher at the front of the curve with specs adding to an already record long. The market estimate for their position is around long 310k contracts (15.5mmt)!! Near term spreads have rallied as well, suggesting those expecting the market to move lower have begun to throw in the towel. The mood from NY sugar week was constructive, with the major question being whether near term the market has pushed too far and can we see a pullback. There were a few major highlights : ...Read full article