• Weekly Market Report 12 September 2017 12 September 2017

    Sugar

    • With a shortened week owing to the US public holiday on Monday, raw sugar futures traded positively to the week end.
    • Despite weather concerns in the US and further gasoline price hikes in Brazil, sugar positivity persisted.

    Currency/macro comments

    • The AUD posted fresh two-year highs this week (USD 0.81) as concerns for another rate hike by the US Fed this year shortened.
    • As expected, the RBA left interest rates on hold, maintaining comfort with the current view on policy.
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  • Weekly Market Report 4 September 2017 4 September 2017

    Sugar

    • A volatile week for raw sugar futures, which posted fresh four-week highs before being washed down in the final session of the week.
    • The front Oct17/ Mar18 spread strengthened to –61 points as we near the Oct17 contract expiry.

    Currency/macro comments

    • A choppy old week for the AUD, failing at two attempts to surpass USD 0.80.
    • Better-than-expected US GDP and employment data saw the USD gain ground, but this was short-lived as the AUD bounced back on Friday night following a soft US Payrolls print.
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  • Weekly Market Report 30 August 2017 30 August 2017

    Sugar

    • Raw sugar futures were moderately higher over the last week.
    • Forecasts for better rain in India have come to fruition as concerns over the Indian crop are likely put to bed.
    • In Brazil, the weather appears favourable to cane, with more wet weather on the way.

    Currency/macro comments

    • A generally quieter week for the AUD, eventually closing at USD 0.7935.
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  • Weekly Market Report 22 August 2017 22 August 2017

    Sugar

    • Under the pump for a large part of the week, sugar prices staged a modest recovery on Friday to end the week 20 pts higher at 13.41 USc/lb.
    • Price action suggests sugar is ‘too cheap’ below 13 USc/lb.
    • Producers remain heavily underpriced and specs are very short.

    Currency/macro comments

    • Unsustained USD pressure saw the AUD finish up the week above USD 0.79, despite spending some time near USD 0.78
    • Stronger-than-anticipated retail sales and manufacturing data helped the USD firm early in the week, but all gains were retraced by the end of the week after a dovish tone from FOMC meeting minutes.
    • A quiet week on the economic data calendar locally and overseas.
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  • Monthly Market Report 14 August 2017 14 August 2017

    Sugar

    • Raw sugar futures have seesawed over the past month.
    • A return to surplus appears imminent coming into the second half of the year.
    • Looking ahead, an influx of sugar will weigh down trade flows with any rally in the near term difficult to sustain.

    Currency/macro comments

    • Despite three weeks of losses, the AUD continues to grasp at USD 0.79.
    • Topside momentum has slowed for the AUD as it continues to chop lower.
    • Further RBA speakers this week, paired with economic data, should see the AUD hold a USD 0.7850–0.7950 range.
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  • Weekly Market Report 8 August 2017 8 August 2017

    SUGAR:

    • A run at 15 USc/lb was rejected this week as the market fell on lighter volume.
    • Ethanol parity rose slightly over the week, whilst dryness and uneven rainfall in India caused some concern.
    • The Indian government is considering another change to its import tariff, which may allow 300–500kt to be imported at 25 per cent of the duty.

    AUD:

    • USD bounced back following a decent US payroll print on Friday night.
    • Gradually weaker on the week, the AUD maintained a USD 0.7900 handle, despite a dip below 0.7900 following US payrolls.
    • The RBA left rates on hold as expected, though explaining that a higher currency would see a slower pick up in economic activity and inflation going forward.
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  • Weekly Market Report 2 August 2017 2 August 2017

    Sugar

    • A quiet week for raw sugar futures, trading over a 90-point range to finish largely unchanged.
    • Weather remains dry in Brazil with some rain forecast later this week. The monsoon in India continues.

    AUD

    • The USD remains on the back foot, following political uncertainty and mixed economic data last week.
    • The AUD took its opportunity above 80 cents tracking to an USD 0.8066 high before closing the week near USD 0.7985.
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  • Weekly Market Report 24 July 2017 24 July 2017

    Sugar:

    • Raw sugar prices were almost unchanged during the week, maintaining a 14 USc/lb handle.
    • Brazilian Government tax increases to ethanol and gasoline are expected to lift parity levels, but this will be difficult to measure until pump prices are impacted.

    Currency/macro comments:

    • AUD sustained recent strength into higher ground over the last week, with a weaker USD and sentiment aiding its performance.
    • AUD finished the week on the backfoot near USD 0.79.
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  • Weekly Market Report 17 July 2017 17 July 2017

    Sugar

    • Raw sugar futures were on the back foot on Monday night after Indian import duty increases and more cuts to gasoline prices saw sugar prices crumble.
    • Sugar firmed in the back end of the week, erasing Monday’s losses to settle in front.

    Currency/macro comments

    • The AUD was the performer of the week, surpassing USD 0.78.
    • US retail sales and CPI missed market expectations, causing the USD to tumble.
    • Tuesday’s RBA minutes will be monitored for changes in communications on growth and inflation.
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  • Weekly Market Report 10 July 2017 10 July 2017

    Sugar

    • Bouncing around a 13.50–14 USc/lb range all week, prices surged higher on Friday night following another gasoline price cut by Petrobras.
    • A bearish fundamental backdrop makes it difficult to see upside above 14.50 USc/lb.

    Currency/macro comments

    • A run at USD0.77 was short lived over the past week as the AUD slipped back toward USD0.76 and firmed.
    • The RBA left rates on hold and released a statement with minor dovish changes.
    • USD strength was muted on softer wage growth and unemployment numbers, despite a 222k increase in jobs.
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