Blog

Sugar

• A shortened trading week did little to suppress price action last week.
• In India, millers remain positive that the Government will come to their aid  in the form of higher domestic prices.
• In the week ahead, we will continue to monitor the situation between Indian mills and the Government.

Macro/currency commentary

• Much like sugar, the AUD had a weak end to the week, finishing back below USD 0.71.
• Headlines have continued to be highlighted by trade discussions, concerns over global growth and geopolitical risks.
• Despite a better-than-expected local jobs report, the AUD remained under pressure as global macro risks persist.
• A busy week ahead on the economic data calendar.

• Sugar prices rebounded further into higher territory over the past week.
• The US Federal shutdown stopped the weekly Commitment of Traders report, however, respected market analysts presume specs sit at a comfortable net short position.
• Many are still assuming Indian production will underwhelm, which may prove to be incorrect. We will be carefully monitoring Indian production and exports, until we see further developments on levies.

Macro/currency commentary

• Another strong week for the AUD, pushing back toward USD 0.72, with the US Fed’s reluctance to hike rates in the near-to-medium term.
• Many still expect the Fed to hike twice in 2019, however, no change is expected until the second half of the year.
• Global trade risk sentiment began to build positively over the weekend—Chinese economic officials are expected to progress with discussions in Washington next month.