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Weekly Market Report 12 April 2016
SUGAR UPDATE The sugar market is currently the subject to two very different influences that are both fighting for overall control. On one hand, global commodities are rallying due to optimism in Chinese policy and the belief that the Fed will maintain interest rates at a low enough level to allow growth whilst having the cost of money virtually free. This has led to a “risk asset” rally—equity markets, commodities and commodity currencies (AUD, CAD, NZD) have all benefitted. Added to this, the sugar market...Read full article -
Weekly Market Report 5 April 2016
SUGAR UPDATE The speculative and fund community caught the market by surprise over the weekend, with what was expected to be a reduction in their long position (into the 68 point fall last Tuesday) actually was an increase. It now appears more and more likely this is where the majority of the move up from 12.50 has come from. So where to now? Prices have washed out from 16.77 to 14.62 in the space of a week. But the long position of this sector is still very large by historical standards. Could they go to all the ...Read full article -
Weekly Market Report 14 March 2016
SUGAR UPDATE On light volumes sugar has pushed back towards the top of the range. In a macro sense very little seems to have changed to be driving this move higher. The net spec position has pushed long an additional 50k for the week and now stands at +100k. On the positive side, USD/BRL has fallen away to 3.58 with BRL shorts being covered into the potential for the impeachment of the President. There was some market talk around suggesting 75% of the upcoming crop has already been priced, taking away some of the ...Read full article -
Weekly Market Report 26 February 2016
SUGAR UPDATE The action of the fund/speculative community has been the key driver of the sugar market at different times, and has been the especially the case recently. The large push from the Sept lows to Dec highs was a reversal of a large short position into a large long position. A deteriorating macro environment (oil under pressure, China worries, Japan going to negative rates) halted the push higher and left these longs vulnerable. The sell off through Jan ended with the specs being close to zero, although...Read full article -
Weekly Market Report 1 December 2015
SUGAR UPDATE The sugar market spent the month of November trapped sideways significantly off the September lows. The market is grappling with opposing forces as spoken of previously (dryness in many production areas and too much rainfall in Brazil against an Indian subsidy which may release 2–2.5mmt (but up to 3.2mmt) on the world export market, plugging most of the perceived production deficit for next year. Technically the fact the market has been unable to sell off through 14c bodes well for an eventual ...Read full article -
Weekly Market Report 17 November 2015
SUGAR UPDATE The sugar market seems (once again) to be trapped in a range. This time however the range is significantly higher than the lows and there are reasons to suggest we may continue to move higher. The new range is 13.70 to 15.50 with end users seen buying before 14c and producers selling over 15.25. Like most other times there are competing forces. On the bullish side, rain is threatening to hamper what remains of the Brazilian crop. Sugar production seems set to end around 30.5mmt down from earlier es ma...Read full article