Blog

SUGAR MARKET OVERVIEW Current themes have continued in the sugar market. Excess supply near term with hope of a smaller Indian crop, rainfall shortage in Thailand and the effects of lack of husbandry in Brazil for 14/15 dominating. New contract lows in Oct were followed by what could only be called a short squeeze. 16.00 was a large resistance level that held firm. Near term, a test of the contract lows seems on the cards with the potential for a test of 15.00. There is good evidence of Brazilian producers washing...

SUGAR MARKET OVERVIEW In a holiday-shortened week, Sugar continued its slide lower. “Technical” buying (read: short squeeze) on Tuesday gave way to three solid days of selling, with October finishing the week on new contract lows at 15.00c. The Oct/Mar spread weakened to –2.23. We note a few (bullish) changes in market dynamics: Brazil physical premiums have rallied back to positive; ethanol parity is creating washouts; Oct/Mar spread has widened enough to facilitate a profitable roll for those able; Oct/...

SUGAR MARKET OVERVIEW The slide in sugar has been relentless, with Oct falling 28% with almost no pullback. The Oct/Mar spread has weakened to –260. Brazil physical premiums are now well and truly positive, showing the poor quality Thai overhang is driving the October contract lower. The specs added only 20k to their shorts, but we witnessed 4 more days of unrelenting selling after this. So the market will be expecting a much larger short position, when next reported on Saturday. To this point in me, Brazilia...

SUGAR MARKET OVERVIEW Sugar continued the relentless slide lower over the last week with October making new lows most days. We have been hearing of producer selling just above the market and when the liquidity wasn't there in the outright position, they were selling in the Oct/Mar spread to be able to move the required volume. By any metric #11 is oversold, but the selling we are seeing currently is people being forced to market not opportunistic selling. Could this keep going even though we have fallen over 30% f...