- The slide continues as raw sugar futures fell to 13-month lows of 15.01 USc/lb.
- Ethanol prices and parity are expected to fall below 14 USc/lb.
- From a technical and fundamental aspect, the odds are stacked against sugar.
- Time spent above 0.75 USD was cut short twice over the past week.
- Short term, the AUD looks comfortable in the 0.74–0.75 USD range.
- The BRL collapsed, causing a flurry of Brazilian producer pricing to market.
- Sugar hit another stop as China announced additional import tariffs.
- Raw sugar futures have struggled to maintain a 16 USc/lb handle, settling below that.
- The AUD was grinding higher over the week on USD and Trump weakness.
- Locally, we saw strong employment numbers, which aided the AUD’s leg up.
- AUD weakness was short lived, as the FOMC suggested a June rate hike may not occur.
- Down another 5 per cent (80 points), raw sugar futures continue to slide.
- Weakness across the board is attributed to a softening commodity complex.
- Going forward, no aggressive outlook for sugar unless faced with a weather event.
- A recovery back above 0.75 USD was short lived for the AUD.
- Weakness in commodities helped the AUD to a five-month low at 0.737 USD.
- As expected, the RBA left rates on hold, maintaining their neutral stance going forward.
SUGAR Consecutive weeks of decline were reversed on Friday as the May-17 contract expired 86 points higher at 16.04 USc/lb. A record delivery of 1.5mmt of raws delivered to the tape. A sole deliverer and multiple receivers has the market conducive on a change in sentiment. Rather, we believe this expiry helping develop the theme of overestimated consumption and higher stocks. UNICA released their first report for 17/18 crop, data showed significantly lower numbers than the same time last year. Additionally, the la...Read full article