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SUGAR UPDATE The latest UNICA number has the Brazilian crop running at record levels, significantly above the last year. Ethanol demand is still sluggish, but with a crop that is expected to test the crushing capacity of the entire sector, the ability to switch from sugar to ethanol will be less important for the mills as actually getting the cane crushed. The weather continues to be warm and dry, enabling the cane to come out of the field but some are talking now about the threat to the replant given the dry. It ...

SUGAR UPDATE As we have been talking about for a while now, the market is caught between tight supply in Asia balanced against a perceived record crop in brazil. The upcoming deficit has been well flagged but a general push back into commodities has given the spec community the confidence to move to a record long position. No sooner had that long been established, the market ‘washed out’ 80 points lower. Volumes are lower than usual, and “air pockets” where buying and selling order cause the market to gap ...

SUGAR UPDATE Sugar has continued to trade at the top of its recent range for the last week. NY Sugar week is on and a few interesting (and very bullish) headlines have been emerging. The huge Brazil crop is well and truly known to the market so the market is looking to for new stories. The two main stories centre around the lack of rain in Asia. The biggest headline so far is that India’s replanting for next year will be as much 35% below this year’s level in Maharashtra. To realise the scale of this, note tha...

SUGAR UPDATE Sugar has continued to push higher at the front of the curve with specs adding to an already record long. The market estimate for their position is around long 310k contracts (15.5mmt)!! Near term spreads have rallied as well, suggesting those expecting the market to move lower have begun to throw in the towel. The mood from NY sugar week was constructive, with the major question being whether near term the market has pushed too far and can we see a pullback. There were a few major highlights : ...