• Weekly Market Report 20 June 2018 20 June 2018

    Sugar

    • Raw sugar futures struggled to hold in the face of persistent downward pressures around anticipated output in major producing regions
    • A considerably weaker Brazilian real afforded producers an opportunity to do some pricing.
    • Looking ahead, there is mention of a potential El Nino weather event, although Thai and Indian crops are unlikely to be disrupted, given timing.

    Macro/currency commentary

    • Despite a disruptive weekend following the G7 summit in Quebec, currencies started the week relatively quietly.
    • As expected, the US Fed lifted rates another 25 bps, signalling that another two hikes in 2018 are likely.
    • The AUD moved lower in response to the central bank’s statement and has continued to slide since.
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  • Weekly Market Report 13 June 2018 13 June 2018

    Sugar

    • Large swings either side of 12 USc/lb are the norm in this week’s daily sugar chart.
    • Raw sugar futures seesawed on a weaker Brazilian real, allowing for heavy producer selling to be absorbed by fund buying.
    • The Indian Government announced its relief package for the struggling local sugar market.

    Currency/macro commentary

    • Topside momentum for the AUD stalled last week above USD 0.7675.
    • The RBA left interest rates on hold as expected, which saw the AUD briefly below USD 0.7600.
    • US President Trump has declared the US-North Korea summit a success, and that it has led to a ‘secured commitment for denuclearisation’.
    • The USD has performed well since, with CPI data releasing in line with expectations.
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  • Weekly Market Report 4 June 2018 4 June 2018

    Sugar

    • A three-week recovery in raw sugar futures was stopped in its tracks on Friday night, retracing any headway made in the previous weeks.
    • Newswires were highlighted by the resignation of Brazil’s Petrobras CEO, and fears of a return to a fixed-price gas agreement helped drive sugar prices lower.
    • With large selling pressure above 13 USc/lb, news of rain and an end to the truckers’ strike did little to help sugar markets’ fortunes.

    Currency/macro commentary

    • Seesawing price action saw the AUD slide below USD 0.7500 mid-week, before rebounding back above USD 0.75.
    • Positive price action was capped as the monthly US Non-Farm Payrolls data beat expectations on Friday night, with US stocks, treasury yields and the big dollar all higher.
    • A busy week ahead on the economic data calendar, with the RBA meeting on Tuesday expected to leave rates on hold, with little change to the accompanying commentary.
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  • Weekly Market Report 28 May 2018 28 May 2018

    Sugar

    • There have been positive signs for raw sugar futures in the past two weeks, with price action showing consecutive gains across the fortnight.
    • The latest Commitment of Traders report continues to see a reduction of the net short position.
    • Potential Indian stockpiles and weather in CS Brazil will hold much of the market’s attention.

    Macro/currency commentary

    • The AUD has consolidated from USD 0.7800–0.7450 over the past month, to the delight of exporters.
    • US ten-year yields have dipped below the key 3% level, which should help sustain the AUD around USD 0.7550 in the near term.
    • Friday’s release of US Non-Farm Payrolls data will be the highlight of this week’s calendar, with no key local data due out.
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  • Weekly Market Report 9 May 2018 9 May 2018

    Sugar

    • The recent freefall took a break last week as sugar prices found some support below 10 USc/lb.
    • The new prompt, Jul18, traded higher though eventually settled the week in arrears.
    • India is one step closer on subsidies, announcing a subsidy worth 55 INR per tonne.

    Macro/currency commentary

    • The AUD remained under pressure this week whilst US yields retreated below 3%.
    • The RBA highlighted higher-than-expected forecasts for inflation and a miss in the latest Non-Farm Payrolls data last Friday night.
    • Trade tensions continue to weigh heavily on the AUD, with Trump announcing overnight that the US will withdraw from the 2015 Iran nuclear deal.
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  • QCS Weekly Market Report 8 March 2018 8 March 2018

    Sugar

    • Raw sugar futures have struggled to break free of the last month’s 13–14 USc/lb range.
    • Upward revision of the Indian crop from 26mmt to 29mmt drove the market lower on Wednesday.
    • The market is still ‘talking’ about a statistical surplus, however, we are yet to see this manifest in the physical trade flows.

    Macro/currency commentary

    • A volatile month for the AUD, testing highs near USD 0.80 before sliding to near USD 0.77.
    • AUD strength stalled in response to FOMC indications that US interest rates may have room to move higher, with faster-than-expected inflation growth.
    • The RBA left rates on hold, with minimal change to the policy statement.
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