• QCS Market Report 29 March 2019 29 March 2019

    Sugar

    • Raw sugar futures have had a mixed week, with the prompt May19 contract hovering around 12.50 USc/lb heading into the last session of the week.
    • Price action was highlighted by a small technical bounce toward 12.75 USc/lb before overhanging producer pricing put the brakes on a further advance.
    • Thai estimates continue to come in around 14 mmt.

    Macro/currency commentary

    • A challenge of recent technical resistance levels for the AUD was exacerbated by commentary from a more dovish RBNZ on Wednesday morning.
    • The RBNZ joined the choir of central banks around the globe preaching an easing bias toward rates.
    • Despite some easing near USD 0.7150, the AUD was slapped back below USD 0.71.
    Read full article

  • QCS Market Report 22 March 2019 22 March 2019

    Sugar

    • Last week’s Commitment of Traders (COT) report surprised somewhat, with non-index specs showing a net short 126,000 lots, slightly more than anticipated.
    • Despite the positive backdrop for prices, led by non-index specs, the rest of the week has seen the market erode much of those prior gains.
    • Softening physicals and white premiums have pushed more producer pricing into raws.

    Macro/currency commentary

    • Local unemployment data gave the AUD a leg up to fresh one-month highs at USD 0.7168, but gains were short lived as the USD clawed back losses on the back of some second-tier jobs data.
    • As the week draws to a close, the AUD looks set to close on a 71-cent handle.
    • The AUD continues to gravitate around USD 0.71, despite positive local employment numbers.
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  • QCS Market Report 6 March 2019 6 March 2019

    Sugar

    • Raw sugar futures continued to slump as the new prompt May19 contract finished the week down 5.1%.
    • The Indian Government raised the domestic price of sugar just over a week ago, as the mills’ cries for assistance seem to have been answered. Cane farmers arrears continued to grow, prompting further assistance from the government.
    • It is yet to be seen whether the subsidies will continue to encourage farmers to grow cane, despite the uncertainty of payments.

    Macro/currency commentary

    • The AUD struggled to slow USD momentum over the back of last week, closing the week below USD 0.71.
    • Newswires were highlighted by US President Trump extending the tariff deadline with China, whilst reports out of the UK suggested Prime Minister Theresa May was planning to delay Brexit to delay a no-deal scenario.
    • A quiet start to the current week as the AUD was back above USD 0.71. Comments from US President Trump, suggesting the USD is too high, helped the AUD start on a positive note.
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  • QCS Market Report 14 February 2019 14 February 2019

    Sugar

    • Despite a relief rally erasing the previous day’s losses, raw sugar futures were subdued last week.
    • In India, harvesting continues to push along well, however, exports have stalled whilst mills await direction on Government subsidies.
    • Similarly, the Thai harvest is progressing well, thanks to better yields and operational mills.
    • With the annual Dubai Sugar Conference now complete, in the coming days we will start to see reports of points of interest.

    Macro/currency commentary

    • The AUD was on the back foot last week, despite a change in rhetoric from the RBA.
    • The AUD continues to gyrate above and below USD 0.71 this week.
    • A handful of US and Chinese economic data is due tonight and tomorrow to round out the week.
    Read full article

  • QCS Market Report 30 January 2019 30 January 2019

    Sugar

    • A shortened trading week did little to suppress price action last week.
    • In India, millers remain positive that the Government will come to their aid  in the form of higher domestic prices.
    • In the week ahead, we will continue to monitor the situation between Indian mills and the Government.

    Macro/currency commentary

    • Much like sugar, the AUD had a weak end to the week, finishing back below USD 0.71.
    • Headlines have continued to be highlighted by trade discussions, concerns over global growth and geopolitical risks.
    • Despite a better-than-expected local jobs report, the AUD remained under pressure as global macro risks persist.
    • A busy week ahead on the economic data calendar.
    Read full article

  • QCS Market Report 16 January 2019 16 January 2019

    • Sugar prices rebounded further into higher territory over the past week.
    • The US Federal shutdown stopped the weekly Commitment of Traders report, however, respected market analysts presume specs sit at a comfortable net short position.
    • Many are still assuming Indian production will underwhelm, which may prove to be incorrect. We will be carefully monitoring Indian production and exports, until we see further developments on levies.

    Macro/currency commentary

    • Another strong week for the AUD, pushing back toward USD 0.72, with the US Fed’s reluctance to hike rates in the near-to-medium term.
    • Many still expect the Fed to hike twice in 2019, however, no change is expected until the second half of the year.
    • Global trade risk sentiment began to build positively over the weekend—Chinese economic officials are expected to progress with discussions in Washington next month.
    Read full article

  • QCS Market Report 17 December 2018 17 December 2018

    Sugar

    • Still not much new news about for sugar.
    • Price action was highlighted by a weaker opening, but closed unchanged on Thursday night, remaining largely in line with oil and outside markets.
    • Harvesting conditions in India have been favourable to date—some reputable market intelligence sources are now revising their 2018–19 estimates higher on a better-than-expected Indian crop.

    Macro/currency commentary

    • A disappointing end to the week for the AUD, struggling to hold a USD 0.72 handle on Friday night, thanks mostly to weaker Chinese economic data and heightened concerns for global growth.
    • Looking ahead, this week’s economic data calendar is full of excitement and announcements.
    • The US calendar is highlighted by the FOMC rate announcement on Thursday morning, with the market pricing a 75 per cent chance of a 25 basis-point rate hike on Thursday.
    Read full article

  • QCS Market Report 5 December 2018 5 December 2018

    Sugar

    • Along with oil prices, sugar prices look to have stabilised in the last week.
    • Despite breaching a key 12.50 USc/lb level, sugar prices roared back toward 13 USc/lb later in the week.
    • With many of the northern hemisphere crops coming online now, much of the market’s attention will be focused there.

    Macro/currency commentary

    • A big week for the AUD, following comments from the US Fed, which prompted a rally back above USD 0.73.
    • The G20 summit held in South America over the weekend was highlighted by developments between China and the US on trade, with a 90-day window opened to see if they can come to an agreement on their differences.
    • Continued positivity on the trade front should continue to see the USD under pressure with the AUD likely to test USD 0.74.
    Read full article

  • QCS Market Report 21 November 2018 21 November 2018

    Sugar

    • Raw sugar futures continued to slip over the past week, leading to another week of losses.
    • With the recent month’s activity, the market has been as lively as ever.
    • India now moves into its most active period, with exports tipped to kick off throughout the Australian summer.
    • Following the failed attempt to break 13 USc/lb, sugar now appears vulnerable to a move lower, depending on Indian exports, which could surprise to the upside.

    Macro/currency commentary

    • The AUD had another solid week, closing near the week’s high above USD 0.73.
    • Price action was mixed early in the week, with the AUD surging into higher ground from a stronger-than-expected local employment print.
    • Paired with weaker US yields and the broader USD, the AUD continued to trade positively.
    Read full article

  • QCS Market Report 1 November 2018 1 November 2018

    Sugar

    • The recent surge in raw sugar prices stalled across the back end of the week, as weaker whites and sentiment weighed on the NY#11.
    • Price action was lively for the month of October as specs helped push prices from 11 to 14 USc/lb.
    • The macro environment remains volatile, with equities and stocks giving up the past 12 months’ worth of gains.
    • Giving back recent gains following the election results in Brazil, the real has followed sugar prices lower this week.

    Macro/currency commentary

    • A choppy week for the AUD, with numerous attempts above USD 0.71 being rejected.
    • There were some key data points this week as, local Q3 CPI was received on target.
    • Local trade balances today beat expectations, helping the AUD one per cent higher to USD 0.7145, at the time of writing.
    • As always, ongoing trade issues between the US and China are never far from mind.
    Read full article

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